Washington Prism

The Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Iran's Greens Join the Fray.

Masoud Shafaee – World Politics Review

It remains uncertain whether Iran will ultimately accept or reject the agreement that nuclear negotiators in Geneva drafted late last month to send Iran's stockpiled enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment. But the deliberations in Tehran have made one thing clear: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is under enormous domestic pressure from all sides to reject the P5+1 deal. It would be a mistake, however, to view this pressure in the vacuum of the nuclear issue. In fact, the opposition to striking a deal with the West offers a revealing glimpse of what the future holds for Iran's fractured political landscape.

Those who first questioned the deal hammered out in Vienna were conservatives, close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but not part of the Ahmadinejad axis. Most notably, Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian Majlis and a close confidant of Khamenei's, cast doubt on the plan, saying, "My guess is that the Americans have made a secret deal with certain countries to take [low-]enriched uranium away from us under the pretext of providing nuclear fuel." Targeting his comments more directly towards Ahmadinejad, Larijani added, "We hope Iranian officials will pay due attention to this issue."

Soon thereafter, Larijani's brother, Sadegh, declared that nuclear negotiations were "not beneficial" to Iranian national interests. Most recently, and perhaps most forcefully, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Majlis' influential National Security and Foreign Affairs commission, on Saturday called the IAEA-backed deal "out of the question," though he has since backpedaled.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani then joined the fray, voicing his concerns over Ahmadinejad's negotiations with the P5+1 countries in a letter addressed directly to Khamenei. Rafsanjani's criticisms should be viewed with skepticism, however, as they run contrary to his long history of hinting support for a pragmatic approach in dealing with the West. In reality, Rafsanjani likely welcomes pursuing a policy of détente with the Obama administration -- just not under Ahmadinejad's watch. His opposition to the latest agreement could be driven by his desire to be involved personally in delivering renewed ties with the West -- the "golden prize" of Iranian politics -- or else from a desire to marginalize Ahmadinejad.

In any event, all the internal lobbying seems to have had an effect on Khamenei, who in remarks delivered on the 30th anniversary of the 1979 hostage crisis finally stated that Iran would reject any deal whose result is "pre-determined" by the United States. The National Iranian American Council's Trita Parsi labeled Iran's current crisis of leadership "the worst-case scenario" for resolving the nuclear issue, arguing that "it can leave people with the impression diplomacy has been tried and failed, whereas in reality it came at a point when Iran is too politically divided and incapable of making decisions of this magnitude."

But while Ahmadinejad may be feeling pressure most vocally from the right side of Iran's political spectrum, the increasingly unified message of the Green movement vis-à-vis the nuclear issue should not be overlooked. It represents yet another complex variable for an Obama administration trying to balance engagement with Iran based on U.S. security interests on the one hand, and not interfering with the aspirations of an expansive, grass-roots opposition movement inside the country on the other.

The Green movement has only recently started to discuss the nuclear issue directly, and with caution even then, avoiding any mention of whether the regime is actually pursuing an atomic weapon. But both Mir Hossein Mousavi's and Mehdi Karoubi's criticisms of nuclear negotiations seem to have been formulated to capitalize on the political divisions that have emerged between conservatives since June's election. At their meeting in late October, Mousavi called the outcome of the Geneva talks "shocking" and framed Ahmadinejad's engagement with the West in almost anti-nationalist terms.

"If we commit to the promises [the regime] has given in Geneva, we will be undermining the efforts of thousands of scientists across the country," he said, "while if we do not agree, that would open up the door for collective action against us in the form of sanctions. This is the outcome of an adventurous foreign policy that has no regard for rules and national interests."

Only three days later, Mousavi addressed the Obama administration's apparent willingness to negotiate with Ahmadinejad's government head-on, stating, "If need be, [the West] will sit at the negotiation table, while turning [its] back on the [Green] movement."